How the next election could be closer than you think

LAST week I wrote a column arguing the reasons why I believed Rishi Sunak might win the next election. This was met with both derision and disbelief by some. Others sagely observed, however, that the election is likely to be far closer than current polls suggest.

Discussion then turned to 1974, when Labour won marginally more seats — 301 to the Tories on 297 — but with both parties falling short of the majority needed, hence a hung parliament.

Labour, not the Tories, went on to form a minority government with the Lib Dems. And they soon called another election and decisively won.

The Tories will need to win at least 310 seats in 2024, because they won’t have many to form a minority government with. Certainly not the Lib Dems, while the SNP are more likely to vote with Labour.

Sir Keir Starmer can arguably reach Number 10 if he can reach 290 seats, due to having more willing collaborators.

There’s plenty of scope to still prove my prediction wrong.