Covid’s health legacy

“STAY at home. Protect the NHS. Save lives.” This was the Government’s message to the British people at the terrifying start of the pandemic last year. The slogan worked. Millions bunkered at home, the NHS was not overwhelmed and lives were saved. But it did so by flipping public policy logic on its head.

For in normal times, our NHS is there to protect us, not the other way around. And the impact of such a reversal could be with us for years. As we report today, emergency admissions to London hospitals fell by a quarter between March and December last year, with people from black and Asian communities significantly more likely to have stayed away. Elective hospital admissions dropped by a third, outpatient appointments and non-Covid emergencies both fell by a fifth.

This is not a reflection of a city getting healthier. People staying away from hospital with non-Covid conditions — out of fear of catching the virus, a desire to relieve the health service of further strain or simply cancelled operations — is storing up problems for the near future.

It will cost many billions to catch up on these missed treatments, and only heighten pre-pandemic health inequalities. Covid’s impact on waiting lists is already substantial — 4.7 million people were waiting to begin treatment at the end of February, the highest figure since records began in August 2007.

Meanwhile, NHS providers warned last month that the enormous backlog caused by Covid could take five years to clear. It may therefore dominate the political debate and threaten to undermine the Government’s levelling-up agenda. The emergency sums ploughed into the NHS during the pandemic cannot be easily withdrawn as soon as lockdown eases. The consequences of Covid-19 are likely to linger for years to come.